February 6, 2010

Buster Posey Part Deux

If you’ll remember, back in early December I made the case for uber-prospect Buster Posey to start the season in the Majors, catching a majority of games with a temporary veteran stopgap spelling him once or twice per week.  Since then, my foolproof house of cards strategy has come crashing down with the signing of Bengie Molina.

Time to turn in that catching gear Buster

Upon Molina’s signing, I became resigned to the fact that Posey would spend a majority of the season in Fresno refining his craft and playing every day.  The big news of the day though is that Buster may actually make the big team over backup Eli Whiteside; only not as a catcher.

According to Bruce Bochy, he’ll be taking grounders at first base while making the occasional start behind the plate.  From there, the good news keeps on rolling, as Bochy admitted that last season he “overworked” Molina, and that the 120 starts he made in 2009 were “too many.”  If Posey makes the roster as a first-baseman and spells Bengie for say, 40% of games, we’re a better team.  If Posey plays at first when a lefty is on the mound, then we’re a better team.  If Posey plays catcher on the days he’s not playing first, we’re a better team.  I guess what I’m trying to say is that it’s absolutely essential to the success of this team in 2009 for Buster Posey to make the 25-man roster out of camp and to play on at least a semi-consistent basis.

No matter what way you swing it, Buster Posey is a better baseball player than Bengie Molina.  Hell, if he played every day he’d probably be our second-best hitter, probably followed by John Bowker, who would also play on a regular basis in my fantasy world (a discussion for another post perhaps?).  Given the circumstances, the plan to have Buster take grounders as an infielder is really the best possible scenario.  Of course in a perfect world things would be different, but that’s just not the world we live in.

Harsh realities of the universe being the way they are, Bengie Molina is the Opening Day catcher.  This is something I’ve come to terms with.  So by having Buster Posey, a guy who played all over the place in college, learn first-base, our offense is better by default.  It’s a step in the right direction in terms of competent roster management, even if it isn’t perfect.

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February 5, 2010

Why we shouldn’t worry about Madison Bumgarner

In addition to having the funniest name of any player this side of Boof Bonser, Madison Bumgarner is widely considered to be the next big thing in the Giants rotation alongside Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.  Drafted with the 10th overall pick in the 2007 June Draft, he came out of high school with a great fastball and not a lot else.  The scouting reports back then noted that his breaking pitches lagged well behind his electric fastball, “clocked anywhere from 89-95 mph.”

Dear Mad-Bum, throw hard again. Sincerely, Nick

That same scouting report predicted that once he fills out his velocity could potentially top out around 97-98 mph.  Needless to say, when he toed the rubber in September last season for his first Major League start, expectations were that we’d see some heat.  Instead, his fastball stayed around 88-90, leaving many of us scratching our heads.  This loss of velocity may seem alarming, especially for a guy who the organization has put so much stock into as an ace of the future.  It’s easy to go around screaming “the sky is falling” when something like this occurs.

But then you have to realize that it was September for a 20 year-old who wasn’t accustomed to the grind of a long season.  To put it in perspective, even Tim Lincecum lost velocity at the end of the season, going from averaging around 94 mph on his fastball in the first two months, to 91 mph in the final two.  When you consider that the human arm evolutionarily isn’t even designed to throw a baseball, it’s an easy connection to make: lots of pitching makes for a tired arm.

Because of this, I’m officially not worried about Madison Bumgarner as our 5th starter this next season.  A little concerned about him breaking down from the inevitable innings jump he’ll have to face, but not worried about his performance.  Remember his stint back in September that had us all pulling our hair out?  He also struck out 10 in 10 innings.  What does that tell you about the guy drafted out of high school who had nothing but a fastball and a pocket full of dreams?  It shows us that he’s learned how to be more of a pitcher and less of a thrower (albeit in a miniscule sample size of innings).

Bumgarner will of course be closely watched next season to see if he does indeed regain that illusive velocity we heard so much about on Draft Day.  Regardless, this team is out of money and better options, so why not let the kid try his hand at Big League hitters?  My one caveat is that if the typical signs of fatigue start showing up, shut him down, shut him down, for the love of God shut him down.  There’s nothing to be gained from Mark Prior-ing Bumgarner’s arm into oblivion.  Let him learn at the Major League level, but keep him healthy enough to stay there for years to come.

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February 3, 2010

Homage to the Mariners Offseason

The Seattle Mariners hold a special place in my heart, even as a Giants fan.  They may not have the history we have, but they sure do have the heartbreak.  Living in Seattle and talking with their fans, it’s easy to see similarities in the pain we mutually suffer through on a daily basis.  Before 2008, it could be argued that their GM Bill Bavasi was one of the worst of the last two decades, namely when he shipped out Adam Jones, George Sherrill, and Chris Tillman to the Orioles for Erik Bedard.  And then something interesting happened.

He looks like Goldfinger, probably because he has the golden touch

The powers that be had enough of Bavasi’s front office shenanigans and cut him loose after the 2008 season.  As a replacement, they brought in a guy with a long track record of successful talent evaluation, Jack Zduriencik (pronounced Zer-ren-sik in case you were wondering).  Quickly he got to work completely reshaping the organization from the top down.  He unloaded popular but oft-injured closer J.J. Putz in a deal that landed them Franklin Gutierrez (who incidentally was locked up to a long term deal after this last season).  Then he went to the reliever scrap-heap and traded a spare part for David Aardsma, who became one of the top closers in the AL.

After a tumultuous 2009 season that saw definite improvements, Jack Z got to work again this last offseason.  First he signed Chone Figgins, which is largely accepted as a steal for the Mariners.  Then he managed to trade three B-grade prospects for uber-ace Cliff Lee, and then locked up Felix Hernandez for lots of years and lots of money.  After this, it was hard to imagine how he would top himself.  Then he topped himself, unloading the hellish contract of Carlos Silva on the unsuspecting Cubs for the much more useful Milton Bradley.  Admittedly, trading Brandon Morrow for Brandon League was a curious move, but at this point it’s hard to doubt Zduriencik’s ability to scout out talent.

After these major moves, a series of minor but equally as important ones followed.  The M’s picked up Eric Byrnes for the league minimum.  Then they signed Ryan Garko for a shade over the minimum after the Giants inexplicably cut him loose on the basis of 130 isolated at-bats.

If your head’s not spinning right now trying to keep track of all this, it should be.  The M’s front office spent a whole offseason dictating the terms of the market.  Brian Sabean spent it reacting to smarter GM’s like Jack Zduriencik.  That said, the aftermath of the 2009-10 offseason has seen a stark contrast in competent front office management between the Giants and Mariners.  The Mariners are ready to compete now, but still managed to keep their farm system’s prized gems intact.  The Giants are blocking younger, better players with veterans who will break down midway through the season but still receive playing time.

So to you pained Mariner fans, I say congratulations; you have a smart GM calling the shots who likely has vaulted your club into AL West contention in a few short months.  To Giants fans, I say stay strong; Brian Sabean can’t be around forever.  Can he?

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February 1, 2010

From Bad to Worse

Ok so it’s been awhile.  I’ve missed a lot of rejoice and heartbreak in the realm of Giants fandom, but probably more heartbreak.  Lots has happened, so let’s recap.

First order of business, Bengie Molina is back, whether you like him or not.  This man made more outs than any other regular in the Major Leagues last season.  That mean’s he’s not a good hitter.  He’s a 35 year-old overweight catcher with limited physical mobility.  This means he’s also not a good defender.  No matter what way you swing it, this was simply not a good move, especially when Buster Posey is perfectly capable of being an all-around better baseball player.

He's back, even if we don't want him

Second on the agenda is the fact that the organizational philosophy has taken a huge step backwards.  The “sign old guys a couple years removed from career years to lucrative short term deals” philosophy harkens back to the late 90’s/early 00’s.  We may have had winning records in those years, but the focus on veteran presence over younger, sometimes better players left the club hamstrung and out of the postseason from 2004 on.

I was OK with the Aubrey Huff signing because I thought it was an isolated incident.  It was a low-risk/high-reward signing for a guy looking to rebound after a down year.  But with Mark DeRosa, Aaron Rowand, Bengie Molina, and Edgar Renteria all penciled into the starting 9, it’s looking more and more likely that this team is bound for more another year of frustration centered around not working counts, hacking at balls in the dirt, and making fans like me hit their heads against hard surfaces.

In the midst of all this, I think the straw the broke the camel’s back is Bengie Molina (probably because he tried to climb onto the camel and was too heavy).  It’s frustrating from a fan’s standpoint to see a club commit to a younger, better, cheaper option at a premium position, only to go back and bring back the guy who made the most outs of any regular in baseball.  I’ll say it a third time for emphasis: he made the most outs of anyone in the game.  On a team pinching pennies late in the offseason, it’s suddenly OK to spend $4.5 million on a player who simply isn’t a good hitter.  Such a philosophy doesn’t make sense to me.

On top of all this, there’s a pretty good possibility that the newly re-signed Freddy Sanchez will miss the first half of the season with a bum shoulder.  This was something discovered shortly after our crack medical team gave him the clean bill of health required to ink a contract.  Another banner moment from our front office in an offseason that has yielded very little in terms of results.

Will this team be better next season?  It’s hard to say.  At this point, I expect more of the same to be perfectly honest.  Which would be good, if every other team in the NL West minus the Padres wasn’t also committed to being a really good freaking team with a smart, well thought out game plan for how to build a roster.

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January 14, 2010

Fred Lewis, We Hardly Knew Ye

With Merkin Valdez being designated for assignment today, there are other roster decisions to be made.  Most significantly, what to do with Fred Lewis.  His pro’s include hitting for the cycle on Mother’s Day.  He was a plate discipline god among plate discipline commoners.  He was an everyday player for a good part of last year and for 2008.  Then something peculiar happened: he forgot how to hit a baseball.

Oh Freddy...

After a stellar April and a pretty good May, Lewis stopped taking walks, kept on striking out, and was subsequently put in the doghouse by manager Bruce Bochy.  Having had enough of the called strike 3’s and bad routes in left field, Bochy had seen enough.  With John Bowker and Nate Schierholtz ready to step in, Lewis was made obsolete, and was sentenced to pinch hit once every couple weeks.

With Mark DeRosa penciled in to start in left field, Brian Sabean has stated that right field will be a battle between the aforementioned Schierholtz/Bowker combination.  Conveniently left out of the discussion for the wide open outfield spot is our dear Frederick Deshaun Lewis, officially making him the odd man out.

This then brings up the question of what exactly to do with him.  Lewis is out of minor league options, so that leaves the front office with the choice to either trade him or cut him loose.  If you’ll recall the Winter Meetings, Andrew Baggarly tried to gauge the trade value of the young Giants outfielders:

Asked an exec from another club to assess the trade value of the Giants’ three pre-arbitration lefty-hitting outfielders:

Fred Lewis?

“None.”

Keeping this mind, it looks likely that the front office will likely choose to DFA Lewis.  Odds are he’ll catch on with another team looking for a fourth outfielder.  This could be a product of simply not having a place for Lewis.  Or it could be a the second case this offseason of a player who Bruce Bochy doesn’t like getting the heave-ho.  Either way, you’ll be missed Freddy.  Even if technically you haven’t been cut…yet.

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January 11, 2010

Aubrey Huff Part Deux

As you may all know by the now, the Giants signed Aubrey Huff to a one year deal worth $3 million late last night.  Appearing as though Brian Sabean himself reads this blog, my wish was granted, and Aubrey Huff was bestowed upon my struggling team.

Aubrey Huff, San Francisco Giant

Based on my defense of a Huff signing in my last post, it’s safe to assume that I’m completely for this move.  And I am.  It’s a one year deal, so we’re not stuck with him if he continues to regress.  It’s worth $3 million, which is $6-7 million less than Adam LaRoche will get to be the exact same player.  And now with DeRosa, Uribe, and Huff all locked up for the coming season, I think it’s safe to say that our offense will be better in 2010.

So what qualifies as better?  Well a good start would be league average.  Let’s say that hypothetically Huff hits .267/.334/.445, which is what Bill James predicts he will do.  Already that represents an upgrade from last year at first base, where Travis Ishikawa hit .261/.329/.387.  Now let’s say that Mark DeRosa also fulfills his predicted line of .260/.335/.418.  Already we have an upgrade over last season if he ends up playing left field.  Finally, for the sake of conveniency, assume that Buster Posey matches Bill James and hits .270/.331/.405.  This too would represent an upgrade over last year’s Molina debacle at catcher.

At three positions of need, we have noted improvement over last year’s horrific offense.  They may not be extreme improvements, but this is a step in the right direction.  Think of what didn’t happen this offseason (at least so far).  We didn’t sign an aging catcher in the mold of Brad Ausmus who would have blocked Posey.  We didn’t overpay for Johnny Damon.  We didn’t send Jonathan Sanchez to the Marlins for Dan Uggla, preserving our first-rate pitching staff.  And finally, we didn’t succumb to the temptation of doling out a monstrous contract to Matt Holliday.  Overall, I have to give credit where it’s due and say that Brian Sabean has done a good job so far given the resources available on the free agent market.

My bold prediction for the 2010 season? The Giants will be a better hitting team thanks to these signings. It may not be pretty, but I dream of a world where my team can put forth a league average offense with a stellar pitching staff to complement it, and this collection of ballplayers we have now may just be the ones to accomplish this.  The 2010 San Francisco Giants: Hey, We Could Be Worse.

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December 18, 2009

The Case for Aubrey Huff

Amidst the chaos that has been a largely inactive offseason so far, one name hasn’t been discussed among the Adam LaRoches and Nick Johnsons of the world.  That name is Aubrey Huff.  He’s cheaper than four years and $40 million worth of Adrian Beltre or whatever Adam LaRoche’s demands may be.

Our savior...well, kind of.

Because the front office is committed to not offering Ryan Garko, an almost identical player to LaRoche, a contract, Huff is our next best option.

Coming off of a down season, he very well may be had for a short term discount price so that he can attempt to reestablish some value before hitting the market again.  With the right deal, it could represent a good low risk/high reward signing for a 32 year-old with career slash stats of .282/.340/.472.  For more money, more years, and more problems we can have Adam LaRoche and his nearly identical .272/.343/.491 line.  If we’re going to non-tender a completely adequate first baseman in the mold of Ryan Garko, the least we can do is get a hold of an equally cheap, slightly better option.

To compare LaRoche, Garko, and Huff, Fangraphs provides us with this handy graph of their ISO (basically a measure of their raw power):

With the exception of a couple down years, Huff represents the best value for the production we can likely expect.  He’s essentially like LaRoche and Garko in terms of ability only with better platoon splits.  And since Garko’s not coming back due to his alleged tenuous relationship with Bruce Bochy, that leaves us with Adam LaRoche’s demands for a three year $31.5 million contract.  Or Aubrey Huff for a one year deal that doesn’t leave as hamstrung a la Aaron Rowand.

Now if Huff doesn’t hit, then we’re none the worse.  Our other option would be to overpay for Beltre, a Scott Boras client nonetheless, and deal with the second coming of Pedro Feliz for three to four years.  And with Dan Uggla looking like less and less of a possibility, halfway decent hitters are getting harder to find.  I’ve been over the list of possible targets more times than I’d like to count, and trust me, this is a last ditch kind of effort to dig up some semblance of offense out of what is turning into a largely disappointing offseason.

So please, Sabes, I’d like Aubrey Huff in a Giants uniform for Christmas.  Even though there’s been absolutely no mention of Huff anywhere in the same sentence as the Giants.  But a boy can dream, can’t he?

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December 17, 2009

So, What Now?

Since the Winter Meetings, trade winds have been a-swirling.  Most significantly, the Mariners acquired Cliff Lee for next to nothing shortly after inking Chone Figgins to start at third base.  Seattle is one hitter away from being finished with their offseason shopping.  So goes the offseason of a team with a competent, creative GM.  In comparison, we have yet to get anything done.

To be completely fair though, there hasn’t been much to choose from.  The real news truly is what we haven’t done.  The free agent catchers in the mold of Jason Kendall and Pudge Rodriguez got two year deals, something that Brian Sabean mercifully avoided.  The front office has been insistent that they’re not interested in going after a Jermaine Dye rental to play left field.  We didn’t cough up $9 million for Brad Penny based on a fluky September and we had the emotional fortitude to let Bengie Molina demand a 3 year contract from some other sucker.

So what does that mean for our offseason wish list exactly?  Well, Nick Johnson is reportedly about to sign with the Yankees for a one year deal worth $5.5 million, so he’s out of the question.  Adrian Beltre would represent the second coming of Pedro Feliz. Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are not worth the money and years they’re likely to get.  In terms of viable free agents, that’s the short list (excluding Johnny Damon, whose power numbers are likely to completely tank at AT&T).

This leaves the trade market as the best option for improving.  As I’ve discussed earlier though, successful and creative trades haven’t exactly been Brian Sabean’s strong suit for the last decade or so.  This leaves us with a scarce free agent market and a GM who lacks the creativity to swing a deal.  All this being so, this offseason is now the litmus test of just how creative Sabes can get when backed into a corner.

Talks with the Marlins concerning Dan Uggla have continued, but I fear even adding him isn’t enough to fix this broken offense, especially with a Velez/Torres platoon slotted into left field.  Now if we had somehow managed to get Uggla without selling the farm while signing Nick Johnson to an incentive-laden deal, I’d call it a successful offseason.  But as the Rolling Stones so wisely stated, you can’t always get what you want.  And what I want is a league-average offense.

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December 8, 2009

Winter Meetings Day 2 Roundup

As day two of the Winter Meetings comes to a close, a lot of rumors have floated around concerning our beloved Giants.  Brian Sabean has been busy establishing contacts, some good, some not so good.  Let’s take a look at the accumulation from the last couple days.

  • Along with seven other teams, the Giants have discussed Kevin Kouzmanoff with the Padres, allegedly offering Fred Lewis and Kevin Frandsen.  Kouzmanoff would represent a defensive upgrade, but an extreme offensive downgrade, with a career OBP of .308
  • The Marlins have exchanged names in talks concerning infielder Dan Uggla with multiple teams.  The Giants are said to be one of the teams interested.  Uggla would a solid addition in the right deal.  Don’t deal Bumgarner, don’t deal Posey, and don’t deal Thomas Neal; then I’m on the bandwagon.  All that aside, Andrew Baggarly states that “there are no indications the Giants will maintain a hot and heavy pursuit.”  As of a couple minutes ago, the Giants are not considered to be serious bidders.  Other teams said to be in on Uggla include the Orioles and Red Sox.
  • The Giants continue to make finding a catcher a priority.  With Ivan Rodriguez signing for two years and $6 million at the age of 38, things are looking bleak.  The front office has stated they only want a one year deal for any catcher they sign, and now the free agent market may want more than that.  At this point the options on the market boil down to Yorvit Torrealba (who is probably going to re-sign with the Rockies for multiyears) and Rod Barajas.  In other news, Bengie Molina is definitely not coming back.  There have been mutterings that the Giants may also be talking with the Pirates about switch-hitting catcher Ryan Doumit.  With the market for catchers drying up, Sabean has stated that it’s possible they may revisit Buster Posey as the Opening Day catcher.
  • Other offensive options looked into by the Giants include second baseman Orlando Hudson (no thanks), Mark DeRosa (please God no) and whisperings of Jason Bay (what?).  Johnny Damon is “not a fit” according to two separate sources.
  • With Brad Penny signing a lucrative deal with the Cardinals, the Giants are seriously considering slotting Madison Bumgarner into the rotation next season.  This means there isn’t a whole lot of flexibility in terms of dealing pitchers, especially if Bumgarner proves he isn’t ready.  The Giants would need a fallback plan should that happen, probably in the form of minor leaguers Kevin Pucetas or Joe Martinez.
  • Outfielder Jermaine Dye continues to be a topic of discussion.  His advanced age and gruesome defense make him a pretty scary option.  What’s scarier is that he fits Sabean’s free agent profile perfectly.
  • No word on Nick Johnson yet, but he’s alleged to have at least seven teams seeking his services, which could potentially spark a bidding war.  If that happens, the price-tag of the oft-injured first baseman may exceed the money we’d be willing to give him.  This is all purely speculation on my part though.
  • Bruce Bochy has stated that Eugenio Velez is in for the “lions share” of playing time in left field, while Nate Schierholtz will have to fight for playing time in right field.  Makes perfect sense letting Velez, a career .264/.305/.396 hitter start over Schierholtz, who has a career line of .284/.316/.415 line.  God this team sometimes…

At this point it’s hard to imagine who the Giants would have on the trading block.  Our two biggest trade chips, Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey, are completely off the table, and rightfully so.  That leaves guys like Nate Schierholtz, John Bowker, Fred Lewis, and Kevin Frandsen as our biggest trade assets.  Here’s a pretty informative clipping from Andrew Baggarly that sheds light on this…

Asked an exec from another club to assess the trade value of the Giants’ three pre-arbitration lefty-hitting outfielders:

Fred Lewis?

“None.”

Nate Schierholtz?

“Not much. Pretty much none.”

John Bowker?

“Some.”

It should be noted, though, that Schierholtz is having a very solid showing in the Puerto Rican winter league.

Two minor league names that have drawn trade inquiries from multiple teams: Left-hander Dan Runzler (no surprise there) and OF Francisco Peguero.

A lot of rumblings so far in a short 48 hours, and very likely more to come.  If you’re anything like me, you’ve been checking MLB Trade Rumors every ten minutes or so.  Kudos to them for their comprehensive coverage.  Double Kudos to Andrew Baggarly for his coverage as well.  Keep checking in for rolling updates on the Croix De Candlestick Twitter.

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December 5, 2009

On Buster Posey

Buster Posey is a very good baseball player.  The 5th overall pick in the 2008 draft, he’s been a fast riser through the minors, showing good adjustments with his bat, while his defense seems to remain a question, although when drafted the reviews from scouts were largely positive about his abilities behind the dish.  Last season he hit .326/.428/.540 in San Jose and subsequently was promoted to AAA where he hit at a .321/.391/.511 clip.  Much to the joy of Giants fans, he received the call to the big league roster late in the season.  He was then given all of 17 at-bats at the big league level while being relegated to catching bullpen sessions.

Irony of ironies, now the Giants front office brass doesn’t think he’s spent enough time behind the plate at the big league level.  It takes a special kind of organization to have their top catching prospect ride the pine for a month and then say he can’t play because he doesn’t have enough experience.  To be fair, Brian Sabean has come out and said he doesn’t think Posey can handle 100+ games behind the plate, while acknowledging that his bat is ready.

While in some ways I can understand this, in others it’s perplexing.  Last season Buster Posey caught a total of 122 games between three levels.  According to Sabean, Posey was “pretty whipped” after the conclusion of this season.  Before busting out the tinfoil conspiracy hats though, realize that any catcher will probably be “whipped” after catching 122 games at any level, as well as an additional month full of catching bullpens.  Of course the guy was tired–most catchers are come September.

Taking all this into account, it seems counter-intuitive to have Posey spend 100+ games in Fresno catching instead of in the big leagues.  Either way, he’s going to spend a lot of time catching, and he’s going to be tired at the end of the season in much the same way all catchers are.  This team’s biggest problem going into the offseason is the offense.  Sabean is admitting that Posey’s bat will play at the Major League level.  If he spends the year in AAA, the second best hitter on a Giants team with a struggling offense won’t even be on the big league roster.

Compare this to the current crop of free agent catchers.  Ivan Rodriguez? He’s a 38 year-old catcher who hit .249/.280/.384 last year.  Brad Ausmus? A 40 year-old who hasn’t caught 100+ games at any level since 2007.  Greg Zaun already signed for multi-years, Bengie Molina isn’t and shouldn’t be an option, and Jason Kendall hit .241/.331/.305 last season in a hitters’ ballpark.  The single best option on the market right now is Yorvit Torrealba, and he wants to be a long-term starter wherever he ends up.

If they want a stopgap who’s going to hit like any of the guys on the market right now, the Giants may as well have kept Steve Holm and plugged him in for 100 games.  Otherwise, keeping Posey in AAA simply doesn’t make sense.  On the other hand, I would be completely in favor of signing a guy like Pudge Rodriguez to catch, say, 40-50 games to give our guy a rest every few days.  As well as saving Posey’s knees, Rodriguez would be a valuable resource for the 22 year-old to tap into to continue his development behind the plate.

Easing Posey into a Major League role this way would be having our cake and eating it too–we’d get the benefit of his bat, he’d be getting acclimated to catching in the big leagues, and he’d be spelled regularly to stave off the late season fatigue.  Simply put, he’s an offensive upgrade at a premium position on a team that needs hitting.

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